富士通的研究估计：量子计算机可望在2030年前破解RSA

富士通公司的研究表明，目前尚不必因为量子计算机能够解码加密数据而恐慌，富士通称这种情况不太可能在近期内发生。

Fujitsu said it ran trials using its 39-qubit quantum simulator hardware to assess how difficult it would be for quantum computers to crack data encrypted with the RSA cipher, using a Shor's algorithm approach.

富士通表示，该项研究用旗下的39比特量子模拟器硬件做试验，对量子计算机利用Shor算法破解用RSA密码加密的数据的难度进行了评估。

Researchers estimated it would require a fault-tolerant quantum computer with approximately 10,000 qubits and 2.23 trillion quantum gates in order to crack RSA, an achievement that the quantum industry is a long way from reaching. IBM's Osprey quantum processor, announced in November, has 433 qubits.

研究人员估计，破解RSA需要的容错量子计算机至少得配备大约1万个量子比特和2.23万亿个量子门，而量子产业离这一步还有很长的路要走。IBM去年11月宣布的Osprey量子处理器的量子比特只有433个。

Fujitsu said its researchers also estimate that it would be necessary for such a fault-tolerant quantum computer to work on the problem for about 104 days to successfully crack RSA.

富士通表示，旗下的研究人员还估计，上述的容错量子计算机需要工作约104天才能成功破解RSA。

However, before anyone gets too complacent, it should be noted IBM's Osprey has three times the number of qubits that featured in its Eagle processor from the previous year, and the company is aiming to have a 4,158-qubit system by 2025. If it continues to advance at this pace, it may well surpass 10,000 qubits before the end of this decade.

不过，也不要太掉以轻心，应该注意到IBM的Osprey的量子比特数量是前一年Eagle处理器的三倍，而且IBM的目标是在2025年之前造出4158量子比特的系统。如果IBM继续以这种速度发展就很可能在2030年前超过10,000个量子比特。

And we'd bet our bottom dollar intelligence agencies, such as America's NSA, are or will be all over quantum in case the tech manages to crack encryption. Quantum-resistant algorithms are therefore still worth the effort, even if the NSA is ostensibly skeptical of quantum computing's crypto-smashing powers.

我们还肯定可以打赌，量子技术有望破解加密的话，诸如美国国家安全局一类的情报机构也正在或即将进行量子研究。因此，即便美国国家安全局表面上对量子技术破解加密的能力持怀疑态度，抗量子加密算法仍然值得研究。

Fujitsu said that although its research indicates the limitations of quantum computing technology preclude the possibility of it beating current encryption algorithms in the short term, the IT giant will continue to evaluate the potential impact of increasingly powerful quantum systems on cryptography security.

富士通表示，尽管该项研究表明，由于量子计算技术的局限性，可以排除其在短期内打败时下加密算法的可能性，但这家IT巨头将继续评估日益强大的量子系统对密码学安全的潜在影响。

"Our research demonstrates that quantum computing doesn't pose an immediate threat to existing cryptographic methods," Fujitsu Distinguished Engineer and Senior Director of Data & Security Research Dr Tetsuya Izu said in a statement, but added: "We cannot be complacent either."

富士通杰出工程师和数据与安全研究高级总监Tetsuya Izu博士在一份声明中表示，“我们的研究表明，量子计算不会对现有的加密方法构成直接威胁。”但他补充表示，“我们也不能自满。”

"The world needs to begin preparing now for the possibility that one day quantum computers could fundamentally transform the way we think about security."

他表示，“我们现在需要开始做好准备，因为有那么一天量子计算机可能从根本上改变我们对安全的思考方式。”

The results will be presented at the 2023 Symposium on Cryptography and Information Security (SCIS 2023) held this week in Kitakyushu City, Japan.

富士通的研究结果将于本周在日本北九州市举行的2023年密码学和信息安全研讨会（SCIS 2023）上公布。

IBM has itself been warning about the dangers posed by the potential of quantum systems, and this month published a Security in the Quantum Era report detailing the need for "quantum-safe" strategies today to maintain the integrity and security of highly sensitive data in the future.

IBM一直都在警告量子系统的潜力所带来的危险。IBM还在本月发布了一份“量子时代的安全”报告，报告详细阐述了维护未来高度敏感数据的完整性和安全性对于当今 “量子安全”策略的必要性。

One of the dangers is that adversaries may be harvesting and storing encrypted data now that could still be exploited if and when quantum computers become capable of cracking the cryptography used to protect them.

其中一个危险在于，对手现在可能先获取和存储一些加密数据，以后如果量子计算机可以破解保护这些数据的密码，那么这些数据到时候仍然可以被利用。

IBM also launched its z16 mainframe last year with support for "quantum-safe" algorithms in its Crypto Express 8S accelerator subsystem.

IBM去年还推出了旗下的z16大型机，z16在旗下Crypto Express 8S加速器子系统中支持“量子安全”算法。

Fujitsu unveiled its quantum simulator last year. At launch, it was capable of handling 36-qubit quantum circuits, which required the compute power of a 64-node cluster of PRIMEHPC FX 700 servers, each based on the same 48-core A64FX Arm chip that features in the company's Fugaku supercomputer system.

富士通去年公布了旗下的量子模拟器。该量子模拟器在推出时能够处理36个量子比特的量子电路，36个量子比特的量子电路需要一个64节点的PRIMEHPC FX 700服务器集群的计算能力，每台服务器都是基于该公司Fugaku超级计算机系统中的48核A64FX Arm芯片。

The company said it plans to boost performance of the simulator to 40 qubits by April. It also plans to build its own 64-qubit quantum computer in partnership with the RIKEN scientific research institute. ®

该公司表示，富士通计划在4月前将模拟器的性能提高到40个比特。富士通还计划与日本理化学研究所合作打造自己的64量子比特量子计算机。